SSAA Victoria recently appeared in a story on the ABC’s 7.30 program examining claims that stolen licensed firearms are fuelling a surge in Australia’s illegal gun market. The story was prompted by a new report from The Australia Institute, which asserts that firearm theft is a major and growing problem for law enforcement.
However, when you actually examine The Australia Institute’s own data, including the report released this week and its earlier publication Australian Gun Control: 29 years after Port Arthur (May 2025), a very different picture emerges.
Who is making the claim?
The Australia Institute describes itself as an organisation that “changes minds”. It is widely recognised as a partisan, advocacy-driven think tank, not an independent research body. The latest report also relies heavily on its own earlier publications and data from activist organisations such as Gun Control Australia, rather than transparent, nationally consistent crime data.
The “more guns than before Port Arthur” claim – missing context
The report states:
“There are now over four million registered, privately-owned firearms in Australia – more than before Port Arthur – and nearly one million firearm licences.”
Standing alone, that sounds alarming. But context matters.
Australia’s population has increased by roughly nine million people since 1996. On their own figures:
- Firearms per capita have fallen from 0.18 per person in 1996 to 0.15 per person in 2024.
- The proportion of Australians who hold a firearm licence has halved, dropping from 6,500 licensed firearm owners per 100,000 people in 1997 to 3,339 per 100,000 in 2024.
There are fewer firearms per person, held by fewer people, than immediately post-Port Arthur.
What does the theft data actually show?
The Australia Institute’s theft estimate compiles disparate, inconsistent state figures, and provides little transparency on what is counted as a “firearm” (for example: are imitation firearms, gun parts, or captive-bolt devices included?). Even so, if one accepts their numbers at face value, their own data does not support the headline claim.
According to both the ABC report and The Australia Institute’s paper:
- An estimated 44,600 firearms have been stolen over the past 20 years, from a legal pool now exceeding 4 million firearms.
- Annual theft numbers are lower today than a decade ago, and similar to levels recorded 20 years ago – despite Australia’s population growing by about 7 million people over that time.
In other words: on their own figures, firearm theft from licensed owners is not increasing. In fact, the rate of theft per firearm and per capita has declined.
So what are we left with?
Even using the highest estimates promoted by anti-gun advocacy groups:
- There are fewer guns per person.
- There are fewer licensed owners per capita.
- And fewer firearms are being stolen than a decade ago.
That is not a picture of a “surge” in legal guns feeding crime.
Australia’s illegal firearms market continues to draw primarily on historical black-market stock and criminal importation, as acknowledged by law-enforcement agencies for many years. Responsible, licensed firearm owners are not the problem – and the data presented this week unintentionally reinforces that.